Decomposition of regional convergence in population ageing across Europe

Ilya Kashnitsky, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen
Joop de Beer, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Leo van Wissen, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen

BACKGROUND In the face of rapidly ageing population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population ageing differentiation exist. OBJECTIVE We investigate how regional differences in population ageing developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. METHODS We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population ageing. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages and mortality at working ages. RESULTS European NUTS-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population ageing during the period 2003-2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in ageing mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population ageing. CONTRIBUTION The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population ageing across Europe.

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Presented in Session 86: Modelling mortality