An extremely different way to model and project life expectancy

Anthony Medford, Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging

In this paper we introduce a new approach to modelling and projecting maximum life expectancy for a region using only data from subregions within this larger region. We apply principles from the statistical theory of Extreme Values and the notion of best practice life expectancy to construct a theoretical framework. We apply the method to Canadian data and forecast with 95% the maximum female life expectancy at birth using only information on Canadian provinces.

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 Presented in Session 59. Population projections and forecasts