Deriving age-specific death rates from life expectancy forecasts

Marius Pascariu, Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging
Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging

Predicting the human longevity level in the future by directly forecasting life expectancy others numerous advantages compared with methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. But the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy at birth or any other age is not straightforward. Model life table were extensively used in the past for estimating age patterns of mortality in data-poor countries. We propose a new model inspired on indirect estimation techniques that can be used to estimate full life tables given a predicted life expectancy at birth level.

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 Presented in Session 66. Forecasting mortality